Amid Russia’s incursion into Ukraine, a notable shift in focus has emerged within the United States and the European Union toward Serbia. Instead of navigating the intricate demands of the diverse and fragmented Balkan states, Western powers have concentrated their efforts on a singular objective.
Their strategic endeavors encompass two primary goals. Initially, the aspiration to draw Serbia into the Western sphere, effectively distancing it from Russia. Subsequently, these endeavors have enabled their respective administrations to offer more resolute support to Ukraine.
Traditionally aligned with Moscow, Belgrade has meticulously balanced its historical affiliations with Russia and its potential trajectory toward deeper European integration. Diplomats from the Western bloc have actively sought to detach Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic from the influence of his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin. This endeavor has entailed the commitment of a faster pathway to European Union membership, coupled with explicit warnings of potential isolation should Serbia deviate from the Western stance.
However, after a span of 18 months, some observers contend that the existing approach has leaned heavily towards incentives without sufficient deterrents, thereby falling short of realizing both its intended objectives.
Evidently, Serbia has chosen not to engage in any of the rounds of EU sanctions aimed at President Putin. Additionally, it has continued to pursue its own interests across the region, often with limited accountability. This proactive stance, which sometimes involves stoking conflicts abroad to deflect attention from domestic discontent, has been buoyed by the understanding that it will escape censure from Western powers.
The repercussions of this approach are most palpable within the context of Kosovo. Despite Kosovo’s attainment of independence from Serbia in 2008, subsequent to the tumultuous Balkan conflicts of the 1990s, Belgrade, alongside a significant portion of ethnic Serbs residing in Kosovo’s northern region, adamantly refuses to acknowledge its sovereignty. This ongoing refusal intensifies tensions and frictions between these neighboring entities.
The Western powers’ evolving strategy of engaging Serbia has come under scrutiny due to the apparent absence of stringent measures to counterbalance the offered incentives. As the region continues to navigate these complexities, the potential for destabilization in the Balkans looms, underscoring the imperative for a recalibration of Western tactics. Balancing enticements with effective checks could prove pivotal in steering the region towards a more harmonious and secure trajectory.
